Shortly after Sotheby’s announcement about its offering of the “Blue Moon”, the 12.03ct Fancy Vivid Blue diamond owned by Cora International, Christie’s announced that a 16.08 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond will be going up for auction in Geneva as well. The “Blue Moon” is estimated to have a value of $33 million – $55 million, and this 16.08 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond is estimated for a final hammer price of only $23 million – $28 million total. To be quite honest, even at $28 million, the price translates to $1.74 million per carat, which quite low when we look at latest record prices paid at auction. If this is the case, we may yet be surprised by the final auction results! Let’s take a look at some of the history of the prices of pink diamonds sold at auction, including the most expensive one ever sold, and see whether Sotheby’s estimate is conservative or generous for this diamond!

The 12.03 carat Fancy Vivid Blue ‘Blue Moon’ diamond           Image credit: Sotheby’s

The 16.08 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond          Image credit: Christie’s

Another great pink diamond to be offered at the Geneva auctions is an 8.24 carat Fancy Vivid Purple Pink that will go on the auction block by Sotheby’s at the same time as the Blue Moon. It is estimated to be sold at a price between $12.25 million and $16.125 million. The $12.25 million is understandable, but $16.125 million? That number is a little strange! Why not say $16 million or better yet $16.25 million? Clearly, the auction house is estimating a price just off of $2 million per carat, a rather nicely rounded number!

The 8.24 carat Fancy Vivid Purple Pink diamond               Image credit: Sotheby’s

When we look back, our research shows us that in the past twenty years, only 2 other Fancy Vivid Pink diamonds above 10 carats have officially sold at auction (since the 59.60 Fancy Vivid Pink “Pink Dream” was not officially sold, but rather returned to the auction house when the buyers could not pay). The last pink that sold at auction was back in 2006, a 10.04 carat diamond which sold on April 9 for a total sum of $6.22 million ($620k per carat). That is a price which one would only dream of getting these days. The only other Fancy Vivid Pink diamond sold at auction was sold a few months earlier on November 17, 2005. It was a 10.31 carat diamond sold for an even lower value of $378k per carat.

The 10.04 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond

The 10.31 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond

In order to analyze value here, we had to use Fancy Vivid Pink diamonds above 5 carats that have been sold at auction in the last 20 years, the total of which is 9 (including the 2 mentioned above). In this number I included also Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink, which has a secondary hue; otherwise we would only have a total of 4 diamonds. The last pink diamond that sold most recently at auction was the 8.41 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink IF clarity diamond that sold on October 7, 2014 for $2.11 million at Sotheby’s Hong Kong. If this month’s 16.08 carat pink diamond sells at this price, the total would be $33.99 million, well above its highest estimate of $28 million.

The 8.41 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink IF clarity diamond                        Image credit: Sotheby’s

Prior to that diamond’s sale in 2014, a 9.00 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink diamond sold on April 1, 2012 for $1.75 million per carat. Therefore, even using this lower price (2012 as opposed to 2014) as a valuation tool, the total value for the 16.08 carat diamond up for auction would be $28.14 million, a number that is slightly above its high estimates, and what’s more is that the diamond up for auction is 78.6% larger, which would also cause one to estimate that the final price would be higher than the prediction, based on price history and specifications. Being above 10 carats should even garner it a premium.

The 9.00 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink diamond

In 2010, a 6.89 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink diamond sold on December 1 for $1.003 million per carat. In the same year, a 6.43 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond  was sold for $1.2 million per carat.

The 6.89 carat Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink diamond

The 6.43 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond

On December 1, 2009, the record was made for most expensive price per carat for a Fancy Vivid Pink diamond ever sold. It was a perfect 5.00 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond that sold in Hong Kong for the price of $2.155 million per carat. Should the 16.08 carat diamond sell for the same price per carat as the 5.00 carat diamond, it would earn a total of $34.66 million, or 23.8% above the high estimate that it was given. It is even more relevant than the 5.00 carat diamond because it is an amazing 221.6% larger at its 16.08 carat weight!

The 5.00 carat Fancy Vivid Pink diamond

As most of us know, at prices of this level, there is no standard pricing scale and no price cap on the goods. Instead of any of the aforementioned factors, the 16.08 carat diamond will sell mostly due to the desire of an individual to own such a special diamond, one that is truly one of a kind. The closest we can come to explaining and understanding this sentiment is if we look at how the 9.75 carat Fancy Vivid Blue ‘Zoe’ diamond sold last year in New York. It went for $32,645,000 million or $3.35 million per carat, shattering the old record of $1.8 million per carat paid for the 13.22 carat ‘Winston Blue’ that sold in Geneva, also last year. For a little perspective, while only 2 Fancy Vivid Pink diamonds above 10 carats have been sold in the last 20 years, only 4 Fancy Vivid Blue diamonds above 10 carats have been sold in the same time period.

The 9.75 carat Fancy Vivid Blue ‘Zoe’ diamond

The 13.22 carat Fancy Vivid Blue ‘Winston Blue’ diamond

Being that most of 2015 jewelry auction attention went to precious gems such as sapphires and rubies, we may yet see 2015 end the year with a bang from the fancy color diamond category. The market has been acting weirdly in 2015, since fancy color diamonds were not the center of attention in auction houses but yet managed to keep their overall price valuation steady in the general market, all the while with colorless diamonds have losing their luster.
Let’s have a bit of fun and guess what prices both the 12.03 carat Blue Moon and the 16.08 carat Fancy Vivid Pink will sell for? Visit our Community, register to our site to make a user name, and send in your guess in the comments!
Just like last year in Geneva, where 2 world records were broken, this year too, I look forward to reporting live from both Sotheby’s and Christie’s auctions. Are you going to be there too? I’d love to meet you and discuss fancy color diamond and gemstone investments! Contact us at info@investments.diamonds to coordinate!